Search results for " Uncertainty analysis"
showing 10 items of 22 documents
A PERFORMANCE-BASED TOOL FOR PRIORITISING WATER METER SUBSTITUTION IN A URBAN DISTRIBUTION NETWORK
2011
User water consumption is usually measured by volumetric water meters. Water meters also provide indispensable data used by the utilities for issuing bills, obtaining the system water balance, identifying failures in the network, water theft and anomalous user behaviour. Therefore, the utilities rely on such instruments for the technical and economic management of water systems. Despite their importance, water meters are characterised by relevant intrinsic errors that are responsible for a part of so-called apparent losses, i.e. water volumes reaching a final user without being accounted for. The aim of this paper is to provide a water meter management tool that analyses the meters performa…
The influence of the prior distribution on the uncertainty analysis assessment of an urban drainage stormwater quality model
2009
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated membrane bioreactor model
2015
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, although can be of primarily importance in mathematical modelling approaches, are scarcely applied in the field of membrane bioreactor (MBR). An integrated mathematical model for MBR is applied with the final aim to pin down sources of uncertainty in MBR modelling. The uncertainty analysis has been performed combining global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The model and methodology were applied to a University Cape Town pilot plant. Results show that the complexity of the modelled processes and the propagation effect from the influent to the effluent increase the uncertainty of the model predicti…
Integrated urban water modelling with uncertainty analysis
2006
In the last twenty years, the scientific world has paid particular care towards the problems that involve the environment. Accordingly, several researches were developed to describe phenomena that take place during both wet and dry periods and to increase the knowledge in this field. In particular, attention was addressed towards the problems linked with receiving water body pollution because of the impact of rain water in the urban environment. In order to obtain a good description of the problem, it is important to analyse both quantity and quality aspects connected with all the transformation phases that characterise the urban water cycle. Today, according to this point, integrated model…
Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables
2008
In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) de…
Uncertainty assessment of an integrated urban drainage model
2009
Over the last few years, the use of mathematical models has gained importance in urban drainage system management; indeed, such models enable the combined analysis of different components that constitute a drainage system; the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and the receiving water body. The effectiveness of an integrated approach has been widely demonstrated in the past and is presented in the EU Water Framework Directive, which also introduces a new point of view regarding the water quality management of the whole system, requiring a global analysis at the river basin scale for pollutant sources. However, integrated urban drainage models introduce several uncertain factors that a…
Uncertainty Propagation in Integrated Urban Water Quality Modelling
2018
Sensitivity and uncertainty assessment of integrated urban drainage water quality models are crucial steps in the evaluation of the reliability of model results. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the results of complex water quality models is crucial in understanding their significance. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones in a manner dependent on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and u…
Uncertainty evaluation in the differential measurements of power losses in a power drive system
2021
Abstract In order to guarantee a correct classification in the standardized energy efficiency classes, the current standards concerning the power drive systems prescribe that their power losses must be evaluated with great accuracy. This circumstance involves the usage of expensive measurement systems, since accurate instrumentation, skilled personnel and controlled environments are required. During the design stage of a power drive system, however, the measurement of the absolute value of its power losses is not always needed. Often, in fact, it is enough to assess the power losses variations caused by a modification of either hardware or software sections of the power drive system. In the…
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Mapping Using Bivariate Analysis Based on Copulas
2017
This study presents a methodology to extract probabilistic flood hazard maps in an area subject to flood risk, taking into account uncertainties in the definition of design hydrographs. Particularly, the authors present a new method to produce probabilistic inundation and flood hazard maps in which the hydrological input (i.e., synthetic flood design event) to a 2D hydraulic model has been obtained by using a bivariate statistical analysis (copulas) to generate flood peak discharges and volumes. This study also aims to quantify the contribution of boundary conditions’ uncertainty in order to evaluate the effect of this uncertainty source on probabilistic flood hazard mapping. Different comb…
A study of the material in the ATLAS inner detector using secondary hadronic interactions
2011
The ATLAS inner detector is used to reconstruct secondary vertices due to hadronic interactions of primary collision products, so probing the location and amount of material in the inner region of ATLAS. Data collected in 7 TeV pp collisions at the LHC, with a minimum bias trigger, are used for comparisons with simulated events. The reconstructed secondary vertices have spatial resolutions ranging from ~ 200μm to 1 mm. The overall material description in the simulation is validated to within an experimental uncertainty of about 7%. This will lead to a better understanding of the reconstruction of various objects such as tracks, leptons, jets, and missing transverse momentum.